I recently received a question from a client trying to decide whether to move soon. The question was about why there were currently so many homes for sale in Fairfax County (especially compared to previous years).
And it is definitely a good question, especially if what we’re trying to figure out if the real estate market in Fairfax County is heading for a crash.
So, the question that we could answer is:
Is the Real Estate Market in Fairfax County crashing?
Firstly, we could see how many homes are active on the market (i.e. not under contract).
How many homes are available for sale?
From this graph, we can see that as of the end of August 2013, there were 2,451 homes for sale. And we notice that there is a seasonal fluctuation, but that, overall, we have some of the lowest levels of inventory from the last 5 years.
That’s good news, so the next step is to see why there are less active homes.
Why are there less active homes overall?
Is it because homes are going under contract quickly, or because there are fewer homes hitting the market overall?
According to the following graph, the number of homes hitting the market has remained somewhat stable (even considering the seasonal fluctuation).
What this means to me is that even though we’ve had about the same number of homes put up for sale year after year (since 2008), we currently have a healthy dose of people buying homes, which accounts for the low inventory.
Whew! So far, it looks like the market isn’t crashing. But perhaps homes are selling because they’re cheap.
But, so if demand is up, the laws of finance would dictate that prices are up too.
Let’s look at the price of homes in the last 5 years
And again, even considering seasonal adjustments, we can see that prices have been steadily climbing over the past 5 years.
Which leads to the following conclusions
- There are fewer active homes on the market now than in previous years
- There has been about the same number of listings for the last 5 years
- Therefore, homes are selling faster (higher demand)
- Higher demand is reflected in higher sold prices
Based on this conclusions, I’d say that the Real Estate Market in Fairfax County is NOT crashing at the moment. Actually, I’d say that the market is quite healthy.
How long will this healthy market last?
Nobody knows how long with this healthy market last, but what we do know is that right now is a great time to buy a home – before the end of the year*.
You can use the Fairfax County Map of School Boundaries to find the perfect home by school:
Log in to the Fairfax County Map of School Boundaries to see the location of each of these boundaries within Fairfax County and to choose your ideal boundary.
When you log in to the Fairfax County Map of School Boundaries, you will find:
- Photos and videos
- Highlights of the area covered by each boundary
- Statistics about housing
- School rankings for schools in each boundary
See you on the other side!
If you haven’t subscribed yet, why wait?
Downloading The No-Tears Guide to Moving to Fairfax, VA is free, and you’ll get access to our unique home-search (by school boundary).
Plus, you get the Fairfax County Real Estate Affordability Map, AND access to detailed information about each Fairfax County School boundary.
*If you’re not sure about buying a home at this time of year, I invite you to read about Why September is the best month to buy a home.