Welcome to 2014!
A client of mine, Dee, asked me last week what I thought would happen this year with the real estate market in Fairfax County, VA.
As I said to Dee, I wish I had a crystal ball and I knew for certain what would happen in the future because I’d be on my way to purchasing a lottery ticket with my favorite numbers.
Sadly, nobody really knows what is going to happen in the future, but we can make predictions… (that is … educated guesses).
Here are my predictions for 2014 which affect the real estate market in our area:
1. Yes! Interest Rates will change in 2014
Ok, they will change… but will they go up, or down?
Based on recent trends for interest rates and what the big wigs in Washington are saying, I think that interest rates will keep inching up slightly, a little at a time.
There will be lulls and they might even go down a little in response to some economic or political event, but overall, I my prediction is that interest rates today are lower than what they will be at the end of the year.
So, what is that going to do to home prices?
If interest rates rise, it might indicate that home prices might at least stay stable. But I’m not sure about that.
2. Home Prices will change in 2014
Ok, so home prices will change too. But, will they go up, or down?
I think that home prices will adjust seasonally, rising to their usual high in June (closely following the trend of number of homes sold), and then they will stabilize throughout the rest of the year.
And even though interest rates might rise, and even though upcoming lending rules may somewhat limit many people’s buying power, I still think that our region has a strong job market that will support a price rise in homes through this year.
This brings me to my last prediction: The Superbowl
3. Who will win the Superbowl?
This time, I can’t get away with the “prediction” that the Superbowl will change (although it will, in some way, I’m sure).
Who’s going to win the Superbowl in 2014?
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that the Denver Broncos are going to be the winners. Why? Well, because I like them and I would like them to win.
And also, because I’ve made an educated guess: There are only 12 teams at this time that could win. So I have a 1/12 chance of being right.
Well, and I also checked the odds, and the Broncos are 11-4 according to Las Vegas (but I don’t bet, of course!).
So, I’m hoping the Denver Broncos prove me right on February 2.
And, although I also made educated guesses about interest rates and housing prices going up, I wish I were wrong.
I’d rather be wrong about housing prices going up
Hopefully, interest rates will lower or at least stay stable for a while longer, because interest rates have the strongest effect on home-buying power.
And if interest rates go a bit higher, hopefully home prices will stay as stable as possible as well.
But I still want the Denver Broncos to win the Superbowl XLVIII!
What’s your prediction for 2014?
Will you buy a home this year?
If so, give us a call at (703) 480-6575, or contact us via email at:
We’d love to help!
Broncos image by deege at fermentarium dot com via Flickr, Home sales activity chart by the Virginia Association of REALTORs ®